Note
September 4, 2026
1 min read
What Is This Estimate For?
By Cristiano Pierry
An effort estimate becomes useful when a team knows which product choice it could change.
“How long will it take?” is a reasonable question. I would ask one more before requesting a detailed estimate: What choice will the answer change?
Suppose a team is considering a new discovery experience. If two weeks means we can test it now and three months means we should first try a smaller interaction, the estimate has a job. It helps choose the next move.
If every plausible answer leads to the same plan, a precise number may only make the plan look more considered. The team may still need a rough size to understand capacity. It probably does not need people to break an uncertain idea into a detailed schedule yet.
I would rather spend that time finding the part of the idea most likely to surprise us.
This writing reflects my personal perspectives on product management, AI, and content discovery. It does not represent the official position of my employer or any affiliated organization.